Jamaica, SIDs and Climate Change by Donovan Reynolds, Independent writer.

 

Climate change is the global environmental problem humanity will face over the next decade. Global warming due to CO2 emissions — which according to the UN have increased by almost 50% since 1990 — is accelerating climate change.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) which quickens climate change is an odorless gas that is highly important to life on Earth. CO2 is also known as a greenhouse gas; an excessive concentration can disrupt the natural regulation of temperature in the atmosphere and lead to global warming. The concentration of CO2 increased as a result of the Industrial Revolution and exponential growth in manufacturing activities around the world. Deforestation, agriculture, and fossil fuel use are the primary sources of CO2.

Co2 is measured by calculating the carbon dioxide equivalent of a quantity of F gas by multiplying the mass of the gas (in tonnes), by the gas' global warming potential (GWP).

This article addresses the impact of climate change on Small Island Developing States (SIDS), specifically Jamaica.  On these small islands, global warming threatens the survival of people, plants, and animals through meteorological events such as droughts, fires, floods, hurricanes, water pollution, flooding, ocean acidification, and a loss of biodiversity. These events are increasingly frequent and more extreme in the Caribbean and Latin America. Advocates of climate distributive justice argue that wealthy carbon-emitting nations have a moral responsibility to help developing countries endure existing global warming impacts.

 Jamaica and other SIDs.

Jamaica, the island where I was born, is categorized by the United Nations (UN) as Small Island Developing State (SIDS). The current population of Jamaica is 2,825,920 based on projections of the latest United Nations data. Jamaica has undeniable natural beauty, however, the economy is poorly diversified, is susceptible to external shocks (climate, U.S. economic cycle, commodities), and there is very high public debt and debt service that stifles economic growth.

Furthermore, there are high rates of corruption, and crime and a largely unskilled labor force could dampen investor sentiment. Nonetheless, according to the World Bank, Jamaica is ranked 7th among 32 countries in the Americas region, and its overall score is above the regional and world averages. In October 2022, the Standard and Poor’s Global Ratings Agency confirmed the Government of Jamaica’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’ with the outlook remaining Stable.

In terms of industry, tourism is Jamaica's largest foreign exchange earner, and a major contributor to the GDP; over 50 % of the country's total foreign exchange earnings and provides about one-fourth of all jobs in Jamaica. However, like most other SIDs vulnerable to destructive and costly weather patterns, Jamaica, which is surrounded by the beautiful Caribbean Sea, lies within the Atlantic hurricane belt.

It is part of a distinct group of 38 UN Member States and 20 Non-UN Members/Associate Members of United Nations regional commissions that face unique social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities. They are grouped as a result of their small economies, geographical space and fragile ecosystems. Jamaica’s carbon footprint is reasonable when compared to other SIDS in size and population. Its carbon (co2) emissions for 2019 were 8,390.00 Kilotons of Co2, a 2.56% decline from 2018.

Conversely, in Trinidad and Tobago, a similar Caribbean Island CO2 emission in 2019 was 17,190.00, a 3.32% decline from 2018 - albeit more than double Jamaica’s emission for that period. Yet the average person in Jamaica emits 3.08 tons of fossil carbon dioxide which could be less if Jamaica adopt a green energy approach where persons are encouraged to carpool, ride a bicycle, or walk.

These vulnerable SIDS, according to the UN, contribute the least to greenhouse gases but are most vulnerable to climate change. The challenge posed by climate change on the development of SIDS is well documented by the UN and advocated for by climate justice activists. The disproportionate impact on SIDS, as the least contributors to the phenomenon, is often contrasted with their comparatively limited capacity to respond to the climatic challenge.

Negotiating Climate Justice.

In the arena of  international climate change negotiations, SIDS has emerged as a credible group through the AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States).  Since the late 1990s, AOSIS called for a global temperature rise of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. Whatever the outcomes of the negotiations, they are exacerbated by climate change and a rising sea level.

Recognizing the vulnerability of SIDS in the Caribbean to climate change, in November 2021, Prime Ministers Gaston Browne of Antigua and Barbuda and Kausea Natano of Tuvalu signed a historic accord.  This established a SIDS commission, providing a mechanism for the largest climate change contributors to compensate SIDS for the climate hazards they face associated with rising levels of co2 being emitted by more developed countries.

Jamaica’s closest developed country the United States has emitted more CO2 than any other country:  around 400 billion tonnes since 1751, it is responsible for 25% of historical emissions; this is twice more than China – the world's second-largest national contributor. In contrast, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) contribute less than 1% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, seemingly things are about to change.

Notwithstanding, Jamaica is affected by limited institutional capacity, scarce financial resources, eroding coastlines a high degree of vulnerability to systemic shocks from the altered intensity of hurricanes. Kingstonmouth.com estimate the current cost to protect Jamaica from a one-meter rise in sea level is nearly a billion US dollars. Between 2001 and 2012, Jamaica experienced 11 storm events (including 5 major hurricanes) and several flood and drought events (Word Bank Knowledge Portal)    

According to NEPA, climate change is a threat to Jamaica’s biodiversity with already evidence of a rise in sea levels, and changes in the coral reef structure and shallow water communities. There is a reputed inundating of coastal wetlands and lowlands, increased intrusion of saltwater vegetation into freshwater ecosystems in coastal areas and loss of nesting and feeding habitats particularly for endangered turtle species and crocodiles.

COP27.

Jamaica’s Minister of Economic Growth and Job Creation (MEGJC), Senator Matthew Samuda, led a delegation from the island to the 27th annual Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27), which was held in Sharma el-Sheikh, Egypt, from November 6 – 18. The hope was Jamaica’s increased access to and equitable sharing of the funds of loss and damage fund.

Recently the Conference of the Parties (COP27) marked 30 years of international cooperation to fight climate change and preserve the environment. COP27 is a direct descendent of the 1992 Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit.  More than 100 Heads of State and Governments of various countries including Small Island Developing States (SIDS), came together to take action toward achieving the world's collective climate goals as agreed under the historic  Paris Agreement and the Convention.

Countries at the UN Cop 27 climate conference adopted a final deal in the early hours of the last extended day of the conference, agreeing on the creation of a loss and damage fund for vulnerable countries but making no further progress on efforts to limit global emissions.

The COP27 conference ended with the announcement of a historic loss and damage fund in negotiations that went down to the wire over the weekend during an exhaustive round of negotiation. At the end of this countries reached a historic decision: to establish and operationalize a loss and damage fund, particularly for nations most vulnerable to the climate crisis.

Hon. Minister Molwyn Joseph of Antigua and Barbuda, chair of the Alliance of Small Island Developing States (AOSIS) that led the negotiation issued a statement that the loss and Damage Funds would advance ambition on critical mitigation and adaptation plans of the 39 countries represented in the negotiations (UNCTAD). How Soon Jamaica will have access to those funds remains to be seen.

Jamaica, Hurricane Gilbert and Climate change.

Before developing Kingstonmouth.com I took a personal interest in climate change. In June 1992 the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), also known as the 'Earth Summit', was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It was the first of such a conference held in the global south on environmental matters. It was held in the aftermath of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, a devastating tropical hurricane with a 40-mile-wide eye, the hurricane covered the entire island of Jamaica.

Living in Jamaica during Hurricane Gilbert, the loss of my roof was a scary eye-opener. The impact was apocalyptic and a rude awakening to the phenomenon of climate change. The tin roofs that covered most homes were no match for the winds; about 80 % of the island's homes were seriously damaged and approximately 500,000 of the country's 2 million people were left homeless. The estimated damage to the country’s infrastructure and housing stock was valued at over 800 million USD. Hurricane Gilbert was the seventh named storm of 1988. Hurricane Gilbert also wrought havoc on SIDS in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for nearly nine days. In total, it killed 318 people and caused about $2.98 billion (1988 USD) in damages over the course of its path. It took Jamaica three decades to recover financially from Hurricane Gilbert.

The hurricane was caused by an El Niño event, where the sea surface temperatures across the Pacific can warm by 1–3°F or more for anything between a few months to two years. El Niño impacts weather systems around the globe, triggering predictable disruptions in temperature, rainfall and winds with devastating effects, especially to SIDS.

Since Hurricane Gilbert, Jamaica’s previously burgeoning cottage industry in areas such as Negril has never been resuscitated, leaving a handful of struggling hoteliers either bankrupt or struggling to remain financially afloat. However, the larger all-inclusive Hotels along the seven mile stretch of Negril were able to recover a year or two after the Hurricane. The struggling hoteliers and businesses in Negril affected by hurricane Gilbert in 1988 are still reeling from its aftermath four decades later. Will they be compensated under the loss and damage fund for vulnerable, just agreed at COP 27?

COP27 impact upon SIDs.

Although all the negotiators present agreed the COP27 cover decision also “encourages” parties to “fully implement” the action plan of implementing the” loss and damage agreement”, there was disappointment with some parties pushing to weaken the renewed emphasis on 1.5C that had  agreed at COP26 in Glasgow.

Nonetheless, there is optimism that vulnerable states will receive support under the just concluded agreement. Governments and intergovernmental organizations—such as the UN—are among the most significant funders of climate change action. The $321 billion in climate finance from public sources account for 51 percent of total global commitments. A massive transformation is needed to unlock the billions required to help SIDs shift to a low-carbon future and build resilience to climate change, especially to fund hurricane disasters. In one swoop, this could wipe out Jamaica's tourism industry and bankrupt the economy. 

The recently concluded Climate change Conference in Egypt was able to settle the very important debate on the loss and damage caused by climate change Small Island Developing States have in part been addressed. However, bold leaps and action are needed, for countries and communities that suffer the most from climate change. By the same token, the total reliability on climate change funding to mitigate the past and future damages of climate change is a “fool’s errand”.  As in the Caribbean alone, the damage caused by climate-related and hazards is estimated by the UN at $12.6 billion per year.

Therefore, active participation by CARICOM and SIDS in the region has to establish regional green climate funds as part of its climate change mitigation planning. SIDs must enhance their resilience to cope with more frequent and intense natural disasters, this requires mobilizing more domestic and foreign resources for adaptation and mitigation. Jamaica must seek means of debt swapping with its main external debtor China  The country currently owes US$626 million to China. The savings from this debt swap could be used to finance Geo-stabilization projects that would reinforce Jamaica’s coastlines and build drainage in flood-prone areas of the country.

The National Environment and Planning Agency of Jamaica (NEPA).

NEPA has positively impacted on environmental policy and research in terms of Conservation, Protection (Natural Resources Management).  It has contributed significantly to public education in partnership with their Jamaica information service to raise awareness of Jamaican public about the effects of climate change despite a lack of investment.  Jamaica currently sources both crude oil and finished product from Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil and Barbados.

Jamaica’s Fossil Fuel Consumption.

Despite attempts by the Jamaican government to curb the use of fossil fuels, more needs to be done. In 2022 according to World Bank statistics Refined Petroleum ($366M), Crude Petroleum ($273M), as of 2020, Jamaica's use of renewables accounted for approximately 11% of its energy (6.5%  wind; 3.5%  hydropower; and 1% solar). Wind hydropower and solar power should be increased to produce cleaner energy and reduce the country's huge oil import bill.

Conversely, according to Energy Global, Jamaica aims to have 33% of electricity generation from renewables by 2030.  There are already remarkable renewable energy projects on the island that are proving to be a strong foundation for the country’s energy resource plan. The Wigton Windfarm in Rose Hill, Manchester, is one of the largest facilities of its kind in the Caribbean with a 20.7 MW plant and an 18 MW extension facility. Similarly, Blue Mountain Renewable (BMR) Jamaica Wind generates 34 MW. In St. Elizabeth, the JPS utility company operates a 7.2 MW hydroelectric plant.

Jamaica must set bold targets to curb its appetite for fossil fuel. Given the current climate, there needs to be a revised target to bring renewable energy to 50% by 2030. There is no political will or local investment forthcoming as the government is currently hunkered down by its ferocious murder rates.  In 2022, Jamaica was the second most dangerous country worldwide, with the homicide rate of 43.85 per 100,000 people living in the country. These damaging statistics have blindsided the public through centuries focus on the effects of global warming.

The country is awash with high emissions from Japanese-imported high-emitting CO2 cars and buses. There is no evidence of debates around a green transport policy; this is not recognized as a priority at the moment.  Due to the high crime rate, bicycle lanes have not been installed in Kingston and other urban areas of the country as an emission cutting policy.   

Thoughts from Kingstonmouth on this issue.

Climate change is the greatest threat humanity faces today. Global temperature rise, hurricanes, shrinking ice sheets, ocean acidification, rising sea levels and increasing extreme weather events present irrefutable evidence that we must act now to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases. The geographical size and a lack of resources mean that SIDSs are seriously compromised and exposed to the effects of climate change, although these states are responsible for about 1% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, climate action, awareness, resilience and climate justice will be crucial for the survival of SIDs such as Jamaica, a beautiful Island whose natural endowment is under assail from anthropogenic climate change. If the country is to be protected from the ravages of climate change then “all hands on deck is necessary”.

To conclude, environmentalism within SIDS such as in Jamaica was once regarded as a `First World' phenomenon associated with economic prosperity and rising living standards; this is no longer the case. Rising global temperatures, largely the product of human activity, are likely to have severe, and potentially ruinous, effects on SIDS such as in Jamaica. The island will suffer the effects of climate change in the form of its deleterious effect on the island the natural ecosystems, and erratic weather patterns and hurricanes may further damage communities in the future. Urgent actions, education investment and planning should be undertaken by the Jamaican government and its people to reduce the risks and capitalize on the opportunities associated with global climate change. Based on COP27, there is now an active mechanism in place for SIDS holding the world’s largest emitters accountable for recovery efforts through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Loss& Damage Agreement COP 27).

 Donovan Reynolds is CEO for Kingstonmouth.com He is a trained Diplomat, Human Rights Activist, and Communication Consultant. This article is edited by Ann Smith, a British Educator and Social Activist. Kingstommouth.com is a charitable organization that has been in existence for over nine years. We have an interest in Politics, Human Rights, and International Development Issues. Viewers wishing to comment on this article may do so at the space provided on this blog. Alternatively, they can contact us at kingstonmouth63@ gmail.com or on our Twitter or Facebook Page.